Abstract

Software Compatibility and Screen Resolution Key Elements for Smartbooks

Currently, Windows XP does not support ARM architecture and Windows 7, which is about to hit the market in the second half of 2009, will also not offer support for ARM processors. This will cause many obstacles for future smartbook development. Smartbooks will only be able to rely on operating systems with relatively little name-recognition, such as Linux, Android, Phoenix, ThunderSoft and Xandros. Smartbooks will be confronted with application software compatibility issues and a relatively small amount of available software.

Among operating systems, Android is the most aggressive in terms of smartbooks. However, Android 1.5 only provides support for up to HVGA (320x480). The next-generation Donut will be able to support WVGA (800x480). Even though Google has stated that in the future it will also develop support for WSXGA (1,280x1,024) resolutions, the currently available HVGA resolution for Android smartbooks offers consumers a less-than-ideal visual experience.

Google also plans to announce a Chrome OS in 2010 that can be used on products ranging from portable Internet access devices to regular desktop PCs and that will allow for pairing with all terminal products that feature x86 architecture and ARM chips. The primary goal of Chrome OS is to transform the current OS design concept, which revolves around computing capabilities, to a design structure that focuses on Internet browsing. The next generation of Chrome OS will represent Google's development towards cloud computing.

If cloud computing becomes widespread in the future, the market status of portable Internet access devices could experience changes. Terminal products would no longer have to be equipped with pre-installed mainstream software; consumers only need to go online to access the applications they need. In such an environment, computing capabilities are no longer the key competition factor, and the fact that Windows XP and Windows 7 do not support ARM will no longer be an obstacle. The elimination of these weaknesses would enable ARM to escape the long-term development bottlenecks it has had to face.

Low Prices Key Advantage for ARM-based Handheld Mobile Devices in Competition with Wintel

Intel and Microsoft have been regarded as the two main driving forces behind the growth of the PC industry. The netbook PC, developed primarily for Internet access demand, was originally aimed at breaking Microsoft's OS dominance by adopting open-source software. However, consumers surprisingly expected the user experience of a netbook PC to be similar to that of existing PCs. Furthermore, about 60% of consumers buying netbook PCs were buying them to replace their notebook PC used for daily work. Therefore, Linux-platform netbook PCs came under attack from Windows-platform netbook PCs, enabling Wintel to establish a strong position in the netbook PC industry. As for ARM's challenge in terms of overcoming Wintel and making consumers willing to discard familiar PC user interfaces of the past and accept a completely new Internet access interface, prices will absolutely be a key factor.

The price advantages of ARM-based handheld mobile devices can be achieved through combinations of chip solutions. For example, companies could choose for the Qualcomm Snapdragon featuring complete wireless functions including 3G, Wi-Fi, GPS and Bluetooth; or, they could choose for a compound solution including a 3G modem with externally added application processors. This all depends on what type of handheld mobile device companies want to offer to consumers.

Android Phone Growth Will Influence Smartbook Development

The failure of Linux netbook PCs in 2007-2008 to make a strong push in the market was mainly due to the large variety of Linux versions. Currently, however, Android has brought improvements to the scattered nature of Linux, which had been a source of frustration for many consumers.

Android has a single manager, Google, and it uses open-source and free characteristics to attract many software developers and gamers to invest in the development of Android application software. Google has also used the ADC (Android Developer Challenge) to attract strong software developers to participate in the construction of the Android ecosystem.

The strong support of operators (such as Vodafone and T-Mobile), mobile phone vendors (HTC, Motorola, and Samsung) and application software developers (Wind River, Borgs) has also been a driving force behind the growth of the Android platform. It is forecast that Android Smartphone shipment volume will increase from 700,000 units in 2008 to 6.5 million units in 2009, representing growth of 829%.

If Android Smartphones maintain this rapid growth, it will cultivate a large number of users familiar with the Android user interface. The switch from the Smartphone interface to the Android smartbook will then no longer be a major challenge for consumers, while the application software on Android Smartphones can also be easily linked to the Android smartbook. It is therefore expected that before the Android Smartphone market really heats up, smartbook sales will not see considerable growth. However, when accumulated Android Smartphone shipment reaches a sufficiently large volume, further development can be expected.

Appendix

Research Scope

This report analyzes ARM-based chipmakers' smartbook deployment, competition between smartbooks and netbook PCs, and smartbook development.

Definitions

Portable Internet Access Device

Portable Internet access devices are handheld terminal devices that possess Internet access capabilities, including mobile phones, MIDs, eBooks, smartbooks, netbook PCs, and notebook PCs.

List of Companies